By He Yin, International institutions have been optimistic about China’s economy and raised their forecasts for China’s growth, saying China has witnessed impressive trade expansion, out-of-expectation growth in manufacturing, and stable macroeconomic data. This fully demonstrates the international community’s confidence in the Chinese economy.
China has been consolidating and building momentum for economic recovery and growth, boosting confidence worldwide and creating new opportunities for multiple parties to benefit from its development. The international community holds a positive outlook on the Chinese economy. Recently, the World Bank raised its forecast for China’s 2024 economic growth to 4.8 percent, 0.3 percentage points higher from the previous forecast. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also revised up China’s economic outlook to 5 percent, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous forecast.
According to a mid-year update of the January 2024 World Economic Situation and Prospects report released by the United Nations on May 16, the outlook for China registers a small uptick with growth expected to be 4.8 percent in 2024, compared with 4.7 percent in the January 2024 forecast. International financial institutions such as the Asian Development Bank, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and UBS have recently revised upward China’s growth forecast in 2024.
All these indicators demonstrate that China remains an important stabilizer and driving force of global economic growth. The foundation for China’s stable economic growth is continuously consolidated. Since the beginning of this year, the Chinese economy has been steadily recovering and turning for the better. In the first quarter of 2024, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.3 percent year on year, with three drivers of economic growth – consumption, investment, and exports performing well, and the four major macroeconomic indicators of growth, employment, inflation, and international balance of payments generally remaining stable.
According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in the first quarter of 2024, China’s total import and export of goods expanded 5 percent year on year in yuan terms, and the foreign trade in goods stood at 10.17 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion). Historically, for the first time, the country’s foreign trade scale has exceeded 10 trillion yuan during the same period, while the growth rate has hit a six-quarter high. Besides, China’s trade with countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and other BRICS nations has shown a growth rate that surpasses the overall growth rate.
China has played a positive and significant role in providing cost-effective products to global markets as a world manufacturing powerhouse and creating demand for products from other countries as a major consumer market of the world. The momentum of China’s economic growth is becoming increasingly evident. Pursuing high-quality development, China’s manufacturing has stood out with new technologies and products. According to the data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) output surged 30.7 percent in the first five months of 2024 compared with the same period a year earlier to 3.93 million units, while NEV sales hit 3.9 million units, marking a rapid increase of 32.5 percent. Such robust expansion has driven up the market share of China’s NEVs to 39.5 percent in May this year, up from 36 percent a month earlier.
New forms and models of foreign trade in China have also gained momentum. In the first quarter of 2024, China’s imports and exports of intermediate goods increased by 4.4%. Meanwhile, the country’s cross-border e-commerce trade rose by 9.6% year on year to 577.6 billion yuan. The number of overseas warehouses established by Chinese enterprises for cross-border e-commerce purposes rose by 11.8%.
These developments reflect the improvement of China’s economic structure and efficiency, the rapid growth of new quality productive forces, and the steady enhancement of new development momentum.
China has been opening its door wider and wider to the outside world.
China continues expanding high-level opening up and sharing its development opportunities and dividends with all parties in the world, marked by increased market access, accelerated opening up of the modern service industry, enhanced services for foreign investors on an equal footing, and stronger protection of intellectual property rights and legitimate rights and interests of foreign investors.
Walter Doring, chairman of the Academy of German Hidden Champion, said that over 90 percent of some 500 leading German enterprises have engaged in partnerships with China, adding that collaboration with China is indispensable for any enterprise aiming to lead the global market. China’s sustained and stable economic growth is instrumental for global economic recovery.
With the robust domestic market, China contributes over 30 percent of the global economic growth. China is not only the world’s most promising and vast market but also a major trading partner of over 140 countries and regions. With the expansion and upgrading of the consumer market and technological innovation, China’s economy will continue to grow steadily, generating even greater positive spillover effects on the world economy.
In the face of a complex and fast-changing international landscape, the Chinese economy has the confidence and strength to forge ahead. As China advances modernization through high-quality development, its mega-market of over 1.4 billion people will continuously unleash new demands and growth vitality. China is ready to continue sharing opportunities with other countries, so as to achieve common development and constantly write stories of win-win cooperation.
